Episode 4

Hahibullah Khan would join us with his army, 60,000 strong, as soon as we enter his territory.Of course, he is an ally of doubtful integrity, for he would probably quite as readily join the English, were they to anticipate us and make their appearance in his country with a sufficiently imposing force.But nothing prevents our being first.Our railway goes as far as Merv, seventy-five miles from Herat, and from this central station to the Afghan frontier.With our trans-Caspian railway we can bring the Caucasian army corps and the troops of Turkestan to the Afghan frontier.I would undertake, within four weeks of the outbreak of war, to mass a sufficient field army in Afghanistan round Herat.Our first army can then be followed by a ceaseless stream of regiments and batteries.The reserves of the Russian army are inexhaustible, and we could place, if needs be, four million soldiers and more than half a million of horses in the field.However, I am more than doubtful whether England would meet us in Afghanistan.The English generals would not, in any case, be well advised to leave India.Were they defeated in Afghanistan only small fragments of their army at most would escape back to India.The Afghans would show no mercy to a fleeing English army and would destroy it, as has happened on a previous occasion.If, on the other hand, which God forbid! the fortune of war should turn against us, we should always find a line of retreat to Turkestan open and be able to renew the attack at pleasure.If the English army is defeated, then India is lost to Great Britain; for the English are, in India, in the enemy's country; as a defeated people they will find no support in the Indian people.They would be attacked on all sides by the Indian native chieftains, whose independence they have so brutally destroyed, at the very moment that their power is broken.We, on the other hand, should be received with open arms, as rescuers of the Indian people from their intolerable yoke.The Anglo-Indian army looks on paper much more formidable than it really is; its strength is put at 200,000 men, yet only one-third of this number are English soldiers, the rest being composed of natives.This army, moreover, consists of four divisions, which are scattered over the whole great territory of India.A field army, for employment on the frontier or across it, cannot possibly consist of more than 60,000 men; for, considering the untrustworthiness of the population, the land cannot be denuded of its garrisons.As a result of what I have said, I record my conviction that the war will have to be waged in India itself, and that God will give us the victory."The words of the General, spoken in an energetic and confident tone, made a deep impression upon his hearers; only respect for the presence of the Grand Dukes prevented applause.The greyhaired President gave the Minister of War his hand, and invited the Minister for Foreign Affairs to address them.

"In my opinion," said the diplomatist, "there is no doubt that the strategical opinions just delivered by His Excellency the Minister for War are based upon an expert's sound and correct estimate of the circumstances, and I also am certain that the troops of His Majesty the Tsar, accustomed as they are to victory, will, in the event of war, soon be standing upon the plain of the Indus.It is also my firm conviction that Russia would be best advised to take the offensive as soon as ever the impossibility of our present relations to England has been demonstrated.But whoever goes to war with England must not look to one battleground alone.On the contrary, we must be prepared for attacks of the most varied kinds, for an attack upon our finances, to begin with, and upon our credit, as to which His Excellency Witte could give better information than I could.The Bank of England, and the great banking firms allied with it, would at once open this financial campaign.Moreover, a ship sailing under the Russian flag would hardly dare show itself on the open seas, and our international trade would, until our enemy had been crushed, be absolutely at a standstill.Moreover, more vital for us than considerations of this sort would be the question: What of the attitude of the other great Powers? England's political art has, since the days of Oliver Cromwell, displayed itself chiefly in adroitly making use of the continental Powers.It is no exaggeration to say that England's wars have been chiefly waged with continental armies.

This is not said in depreciation of England's military powers.

Wherever the English fleet and English armies have been seen on the field of battle, the energy, endurance, and intrepidity of their officers, sailors, and soldiers have ever been brilliantly noticeable.The traditions of the English troops who, under the Black Prince and Henry V., marched in days of yore victorious through France, were again green in the wars in the eighteenth century against France and against Napoleon.Yet infinitely greater than her own military record has been England's success in persuading foreign countries to fight for her, and in leading the troops of Austria, France, Germany, and Russia against each other on the Continent.For the last two hundred years very few wars have ever been waged without England's co-operation, and without her reaping the advantage.These few exceptions were the wars of Bismarck, waged for the advantage and for the glory of his own country, by which he earned the hatred of every good Englishman.